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Al Quadisiya vs Al Hazm Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Regular Season - 33 ·Thursday, May 14, 2026, 18:00

Al Quadisiya

PPG 2.25 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Al Hazm

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.4% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-12.7%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.7%1-17.0%1-22.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.2%2-19.1%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.6%3-17.8%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-011.5%4+-19.4%4+-23.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.4% 82.0% 1.22 -21.4%

Draw 21.6% 15.2% 6.60 +25.5%

Away win 14.0% 10.0% 10.00 +24.0%

Over 2.5 63.1% 80.0% 1.25 -21.1%

Over 3.5 44.1% 59.9% 1.67 -26.4%

BTTS 52.4% 63.7% 1.57 -17.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -6.2%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.4%

H 64% / xG 2.6-0.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 11.2%

#2 3–0 9.6%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 1–1 7.0%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Quadisiya2.6

Al Hazm0.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 44.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AL QUADISIYA · PPG 2.25

AL HAZM · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=64.4%

Win probability 1X2

Al Quadisiya (H) 64.4%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -21.4%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 6.60 · IMPLIED 15.2% EV +25.5%

Al Hazm (A) 14.0%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +24.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Quadisiya face Al Hazm in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Quadisiya a 64% chance, the draw 22% and Al Hazm 14%, so Al Quadisiya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Al Quadisiya and 0.8 for Al Hazm (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Quadisiya are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.00 for Al Hazm. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +25.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Al Quadisiya vs Al Hazm Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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