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Al Ittifaq vs Al Ittihad Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 33 ·Thursday, May 14, 2026, 18:00

Al Ittifaq

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLD

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al Ittihad

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 61% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-17.3%0-25.8%0-33.1%0-4+1.7%1 1-06.8%1-110.9%1-28.7%1-34.6%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.1%2-18.1%2-26.5%2-33.4%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.5%3-14.0%3-23.2%3-31.7%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.1%4+-21.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.7% 27.0% 3.70 +39.5%

Draw 26.1% 26.0% 3.85 +0.3%

Away win 36.2% 54.1% 1.85 -33.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 61.7% 1.62 -3.3%

Over 3.5 37.1% 38.5% 2.60 -3.5%

BTTS 58.6% 64.5% 1.55 -9.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob58.6%

H 38% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–0 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Ittifaq1.5

Al Ittihad1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ITTIFAQ · PPG 1.69

AL ITTIHAD · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

Chance this pick lands

61%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.69), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Al Ittifaq (H) 37.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +39.5%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +0.3%

Al Ittihad (A) 36.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -33.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ittifaq face Al Ittihad in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ittifaq a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Al Ittihad 36%, so Al Ittifaq are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Al Ittifaq and 1.6 for Al Ittihad (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ittifaq are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.40 for Al Ittihad. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +39.5%. This match finished 1-3.

Al Ittifaq vs Al Ittihad Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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