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Udinese vs Parma Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:00

Udinese

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Parma

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLW

// Model verdict

Home 49% chance

Model probability 56.7% vs bookmaker-implied 46.3% — a clear edge.

+22.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.7%0-18.1%0-22.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.2%1-111.3%1-23.3%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.4%2-17.9%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.2%3-13.7%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-11.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.7% 46.3% 2.16 +22.5%

Draw 27.6% 33.3% 3.00 -17.2%

Away win 15.7% 27.4% 3.65 -42.7%

Over 2.5 31.9% 44.4% 2.25 -28.2%

Over 3.5 14.0% 23.8% 4.20 -41.2%

BTTS 33.5% 51.8% 1.93 -35.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob33.5%

H 57% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.2%

#2 0–0 13.7%

#3 2–0 13.4%

#4 1–1 11.3%

#5 0–1✓ 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Udinese1.4

Parma0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.9% · O3.5 PROB 14.0%

Form & verdict PPG

UDINESE · PPG 1.25

PARMA · PPG 1.31

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

49%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Udinese (H) 56.7%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV +22.5%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -17.2%

Parma (A) 15.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -42.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Udinese face Parma in Italy - Serie A on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Udinese a 57% chance, the draw 28% and Parma 16%, so Udinese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Udinese and 0.6 for Parma (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Udinese are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.31 for Parma. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Udinese vs Parma Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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