Today / Saudi-Arabia - Pro League / Al Fateh vs Al Najma

Al Fateh vs Al Najma Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Regular Season - 33 ·Thursday, May 14, 2026, 15:55

Al Fateh

PPG 1.38 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Al Najma

PPG 0.19 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-14.7%0-22.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.0%1-19.6%1-25.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.4%3-16.8%3-23.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-15.7%4+-23.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 69.4% 1.44 -24.4%

Draw 25.5% 21.1% 4.75 +12.7%

Away win 22.0% 16.7% 6.00 +19.2%

Over 2.5 60.1% 72.5% 1.38 -17.1%

Over 3.5 38.2% 51.3% 1.95 -25.5%

BTTS 57.3% 67.6% 1.48 -15.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -6.2%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob57.3%

H 52% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0✓ 9.3%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 3–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Fateh2.1

Al Najma1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AL FATEH · PPG 1.38

AL NAJMA · PPG 0.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.38) vs P(Home)=52.5%

Win probability 1X2

Al Fateh (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -24.4%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +12.7%

Al Najma (A) 22.0%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +19.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Fateh face Al Najma in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Fateh a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Al Najma 22%, so Al Fateh are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Al Fateh and 1.1 for Al Najma (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Fateh are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.19 for Al Najma. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Al Fateh vs Al Najma Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Saudi-Arabia - Pro League Predictions