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Orlando City vs Philadelphia Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 14 ·Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 23:30

Orlando City

PPG 1.20 · HOME

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Philadelphia

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.6%0-24.2%0-32.0%0-4+1.1%1 1-06.8%1-110.1%1-27.4%1-33.7%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.1%2-19.0%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.6%3-15.4%3-24.0%3-32.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.6%4+-22.7%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% 32.3% 3.10 +36.7%

Draw 26.4% 27.4% 3.65 -2.2%

Away win 29.5% 47.2% 2.12 -22.5%

Over 2.5 60.1% 58.8% 1.70 +2.2%

Over 3.5 41.3% 35.7% 2.80 +15.6%

BTTS 59.4% 62.5% 1.60 -5.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.4%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orlando City1.8

Philadelphia1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ORLANDO CITY · PPG 1.20

PHILADELPHIA · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.20) > Away POOR (0.57)

Win probability 1X2

Orlando City (H) 44.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +36.7%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -2.2%

Philadelphia (A) 29.5%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -22.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orlando City face Philadelphia in USA - Major League Soccer on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orlando City a 44% chance, the draw 26% and Philadelphia 30%, so Orlando City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Orlando City and 1.5 for Philadelphia (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orlando City are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.57 for Philadelphia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +36.7%. This match finished 4-3.

Orlando City vs Philadelphia Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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