Today / USA - Major League Soccer / New York RB vs Columbus Crew

New York RB vs Columbus Crew Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 14 ·Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 23:30

New York RB logo
New York RB
PPG 1.40 · HOME
3 – 2
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5
Columbus Crew logo
Columbus Crew
PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-14.0%0-23.6%0-32.2%0-4+1.5%1 1-04.4%1-18.0%1-27.2%1-34.4%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.4%2-18.0%2-27.3%2-34.4%2-4+3.0%3 3-03.0%3-15.4%3-24.9%3-32.9%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-14.3%4+-23.9%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.6%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 41.5% 36.8% 2.72 +12.9%
Draw 24.8% 25.6% 3.90 -2.0%
Away win 33.7% 44.6% 2.24 -24.5%
Over 2.5 63.3% 67.6% 1.48 -6.3%
Over 3.5 53.2% 45.5% 2.20 +17.0%
BTTS 63.0% 70.4% 1.42 -10.5%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

League track record

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%
O2.5 61%
BTTS 68%
Score Hit 41%
ROI -3.8%
Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 3-2
xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.0%

H 42% / xG 2.0-1.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.0%
#2 2–1 8.0%
#3 2–2 7.3%
#4 1–2 7.2%
#5 3–1 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New York RB2.0
Columbus Crew1.8

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW YORK RB · PPG 1.40

COLUMBUS CREW · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

New York RB (H) 41.5%
ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV +12.9%
Draw 24.8%
ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -2.0%
Columbus Crew (A) 33.7%
ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV -24.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

New York RB face Columbus Crew in USA - Major League Soccer on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New York RB a 42% chance, the draw 25% and Columbus Crew 34%, so New York RB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for New York RB and 1.8 for Columbus Crew (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New York RB are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.67 for Columbus Crew. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.0%. This match finished 3-2.

PredictVantage

Free daily football predictions across 240+ leagues. A Poisson-based model analyses team form, attack and defence strength, and live bookmaker odds to surface value bets — updated every day, graded every night.

18+ only. PredictVantage is for entertainment and informational purposes only. All predictions are model-generated and do not guarantee any outcome. Match dates and kick-off times come from third-party data and may change — confirm with official sources before betting. Gambling involves risk — never bet more than you can afford to lose. BeGambleAware.org