Today / USA - Major League Soccer / New York RB vs Columbus Crew
New York RB vs Columbus Crew Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer
Regular Season - 14 ·Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 23:30
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 76 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
H 42% / xG 2.0-1.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%
Form & verdict
NEW YORK RB · PPG 1.40
COLUMBUS CREW · PPG 0.67
Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.67)
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
New York RB face Columbus Crew in USA - Major League Soccer on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New York RB a 42% chance, the draw 25% and Columbus Crew 34%, so New York RB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for New York RB and 1.8 for Columbus Crew (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New York RB are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.67 for Columbus Crew. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.0%. This match finished 3-2.