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Zwaluwen vs SteDoCo Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Group B - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:30

Zwaluwen

PPG 1.57 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

SteDoCo

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+28.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-14.6%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.3%1-19.5%1-24.4%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.5%3-16.9%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-15.8%4+-22.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.2% 50.0% 2.00 +28.4%

Draw 20.1% 27.0% 3.70 -25.6%

Away win 15.7% 34.5% 2.90 -54.5%

Over 2.5 57.9% 62.5% 1.60 -7.4%

Over 3.5 35.5% — — —

BTTS 52.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -21.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.8%

H 64% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.7%

#2 1–0 10.3%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zwaluwen2.1

SteDoCo0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.9% · O3.5 PROB 35.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ZWALUWEN · PPG 1.57

STEDOCO · PPG 1.07

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.57) > Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Zwaluwen (H) 64.2%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +28.4%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -25.6%

SteDoCo (A) 15.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -54.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zwaluwen face SteDoCo in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zwaluwen a 64% chance, the draw 20% and SteDoCo 16%, so Zwaluwen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Zwaluwen and 0.9 for SteDoCo (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zwaluwen are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.07 for SteDoCo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +28.4%. This match finished 3-1.

Zwaluwen vs SteDoCo Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Match Preview & Prediction

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