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New England vs Nashville SC Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Matchday 13 ·Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 23:30

New England

PPG 3.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDW

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Nashville SC

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-111.5%0-26.6%0-32.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.5%1-113.3%1-27.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.6%2-17.6%2-24.4%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.5%3-12.9%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 36.5% 2.74 -0.5%

Draw 29.4% 29.0% 3.45 +0.9%

Away win 34.3% 41.7% 2.40 -17.7%

Over 2.5 46.4% 54.6% 1.83 -15.1%

Over 3.5 20.1% 32.3% 3.10 -22.6%

BTTS 52.1% 60.6% 1.65 -14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.1%

D 29% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.0%

#3 1–0 11.5%

#4 0–1 11.5%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New England1.2

Nashville SC1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.4% · O3.5 PROB 20.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW ENGLAND · PPG 3.00

NASHVILLE SC · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=36.3%

Win probability 1X2

New England (H) 36.3%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV -0.5%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +0.9%

Nashville SC (A) 34.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

New England face Nashville SC in USA - Major League Soccer on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New England a 36% chance, the draw 29% and Nashville SC 34%, so New England are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for New England and 1.1 for Nashville SC (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New England are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.83 for Nashville SC. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.9%. This match finished 0-3.

New England vs Nashville SC Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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