Today / USA - Major League Soccer / DC United vs Chicago Fire

DC United vs Chicago Fire Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 14 ·Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 23:30

DC United

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Chicago Fire

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-18.6%0-27.0%0-33.8%0-4+2.2%1 1-07.0%1-111.3%1-29.2%1-34.9%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.6%2-17.4%2-26.0%2-33.2%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.0%3-13.3%3-22.6%3-31.4%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 36.8% 2.72 -4.3%

Draw 25.0% 28.6% 3.50 -7.5%

Away win 39.9% 41.7% 2.40 -4.2%

Over 2.5 59.4% 55.6% 1.80 +6.9%

Over 3.5 33.6% 33.3% 3.00 +0.8%

BTTS 58.6% 61.7% 1.62 -5.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob58.6%

A 40% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 0–0 5.4%

#5 0–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

DC United1.3

Chicago Fire1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 33.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DC UNITED · PPG 1.50

CHICAGO FIRE · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

DC United (H) 35.2%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV -4.3%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.5%

Chicago Fire (A) 39.9%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

DC United face Chicago Fire in USA - Major League Soccer on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives DC United a 35% chance, the draw 25% and Chicago Fire 40%, so Chicago Fire are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for DC United and 1.6 for Chicago Fire (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, DC United are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.25 for Chicago Fire. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.9%. This match finished 1-3.

DC United vs Chicago Fire Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - Major League Soccer Predictions