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Cincinnati vs Inter Miami Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Matchday 13 ·Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 23:30

Cincinnati

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDL

3 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Inter Miami

PPG 2.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 76% chance

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 74.1% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-12.1%0-22.6%0-32.1%0-4+2.3%1 1-02.0%1-14.9%1-26.0%1-34.8%1-4+5.2%2 2-02.3%2-15.7%2-26.9%2-35.6%2-4+6.0%3 3-01.8%3-14.4%3-25.3%3-34.3%3-4+4.6%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-14.3%4+-25.2%4+-34.2%4+-4+4.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 33.3% 3.00 +10.4%

Draw 23.3% 24.4% 4.10 -2.7%

Away win 39.9% 49.5% 2.02 -19.4%

Over 2.5 74.1% 76.9% 1.30 -3.7%

Over 3.5 69.6% 55.6% 1.80 +25.3%

BTTS 66.7% 76.9% 1.30 -13.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-5

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob66.7%

A 40% / xG 2.3-2.4 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.9%

#2 1–2 6.0%

#3 2–1 5.7%

#4 1–1 4.9%

#5 2–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cincinnati2.3

Inter Miami2.4

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.1% · O3.5 PROB 69.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CINCINNATI · PPG 2.00

INTER MIAMI · PPG 2.38

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

76%

DANGER

Home weakness: EXCELLENT (2.00) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.38)

Win probability 1X2

Cincinnati (H) 36.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +10.4%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -2.7%

Inter Miami (A) 39.9%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV -19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cincinnati face Inter Miami in USA - Major League Soccer on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cincinnati a 37% chance, the draw 23% and Inter Miami 40%, so Inter Miami are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Cincinnati and 2.4 for Inter Miami (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cincinnati are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.38 for Inter Miami. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +25.3%. This match finished 3-5.

Cincinnati vs Inter Miami Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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