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CF Montreal vs Portland Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 14 ·Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 23:30

CF Montreal

PPG 2.25 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Portland

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.6%0-22.8%0-31.4%0-4+0.8%1 1-05.1%1-17.9%1-26.1%1-33.2%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.7%2-18.8%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-04.2%3-16.5%3-25.0%3-32.6%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-16.1%4+-24.7%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.5% 52.6% 1.90 -2.1%

Draw 24.5% 26.0% 3.85 -3.4%

Away win 24.0% 28.2% 3.55 -8.9%

Over 2.5 63.3% 64.5% 1.55 -1.9%

Over 3.5 52.0% 42.6% 2.35 +22.2%

BTTS 62.7% 67.6% 1.48 -7.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.7%

H 52% / xG 2.2-1.5 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.9%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 2–2✓ 6.8%

#4 3–1 6.5%

#5 1–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CF Montreal2.2

Portland1.5

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 52.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CF MONTREAL · PPG 2.25

PORTLAND · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=51.5%

Win probability 1X2

CF Montreal (H) 51.5%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -2.1%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -3.4%

Portland (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

CF Montreal face Portland in USA - Major League Soccer on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CF Montreal a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Portland 24%, so CF Montreal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for CF Montreal and 1.5 for Portland (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CF Montreal are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.50 for Portland. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.2%. This match finished 2-2.

CF Montreal vs Portland Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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