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Charlotte vs New York City Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 14 ·Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 23:15

Charlotte

PPG 1.83 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

New York City

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-15.1%0-23.7%0-31.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-06.5%1-19.6%1-27.1%1-33.5%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.2%2-19.1%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.9%3-15.8%3-24.3%3-32.1%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-14.2%4+-23.1%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 45.0% 2.22 +6.6%

Draw 25.7% 27.8% 3.60 -4.5%

Away win 26.3% 34.2% 2.92 -13.9%

Over 2.5 61.7% 58.8% 1.70 +4.9%

Over 3.5 43.6% 35.7% 2.80 +22.1%

BTTS 59.5% 63.7% 1.57 -6.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.5%

H 48% / xG 1.9-1.5 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charlotte1.9

New York City1.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 43.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLOTTE · PPG 1.83

NEW YORK CITY · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.83) vs P(Home)=48.0%

Win probability 1X2

Charlotte (H) 48.0%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV +6.6%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -4.5%

New York City (A) 26.3%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Charlotte face New York City in USA - Major League Soccer on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charlotte a 48% chance, the draw 26% and New York City 26%, so Charlotte are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Charlotte and 1.5 for New York City (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charlotte are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.00 for New York City. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Charlotte vs New York City Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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