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Motherwell vs Celtic Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Championship Group · Matchday 37 ·Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 19:00

Motherwell

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDLW

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Celtic

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-19.1%0-24.7%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.3%1-112.7%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-18.9%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.0%3-14.1%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 22.7% 4.40 +98.0%

Draw 29.3% 23.8% 4.20 +13.8%

Away win 25.7% 60.2% 1.66 -34.4%

Over 2.5 47.4% 64.5% 1.55 -26.5%

Over 3.5 22.6% 42.6% 2.35 -28.1%

BTTS 52.1% 63.7% 1.57 -18.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.1%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.9%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Motherwell1.4

Celtic1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 22.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MOTHERWELL · PPG 2.00

CELTIC · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away GOOD (1.83)

Win probability 1X2

Motherwell (H) 45.0%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +98.0%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +13.8%

Celtic (A) 25.7%

ODDS 1.66 · IMPLIED 60.2% EV -34.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Motherwell face Celtic in Scotland - Premiership on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Motherwell a 45% chance, the draw 29% and Celtic 26%, so Motherwell are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Motherwell and 1.0 for Celtic (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Motherwell are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.83 for Celtic. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +98.0%. This match finished 2-3.

Motherwell vs Celtic Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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