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Hearts vs Falkirk Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Championship Group · Matchday 37 ·Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 19:00

Hearts

PPG 2.56 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWL

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Falkirk

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

Home 65% chance

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-15.2%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.3%1-110.0%1-23.8%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-19.6%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.1%3-16.1%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-14.5%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 70.4% 1.42 -24.3%

Draw 25.9% 22.7% 4.40 +8.4%

Away win 20.8% 13.7% 7.30 +31.1%

Over 2.5 52.3% 60.6% 1.65 -13.7%

Over 3.5 27.8% 38.5% 2.60 -16.6%

BTTS 51.1% 55.6% 1.80 -8.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.1%

H 53% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.7%

#2 1–0 13.3%

#3 1–1 10.0%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hearts1.9

Falkirk0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 27.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HEARTS · PPG 2.56

FALKIRK · PPG 1.35

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

65%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.56) vs P(Home)=53.3%

Win probability 1X2

Hearts (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV -24.3%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +8.4%

Falkirk (A) 20.8%

ODDS 7.30 · IMPLIED 13.7% EV +31.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hearts face Falkirk in Scotland - Premiership on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hearts a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Falkirk 21%, so Hearts are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Hearts and 0.8 for Falkirk (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hearts are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 1.35 for Falkirk. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +31.1%. This match finished 3-0.

Hearts vs Falkirk Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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