Rijnvogels vs Blauw Geel 38 Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday Group B - 30 Sportpark De Kooltuin· Katwijk aan Zee Saturday, April 18, 2026 12:30

Rijnvogels PPG 2.07

0-0 MISS

Blauw Geel 38 PPG 1.64

Home· -1.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Rijnvogels face Blauw Geel 38 in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rijnvogels a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Blauw Geel 38 23%, so Rijnvogels are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Rijnvogels and 1.2 for Blauw Geel 38 (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rijnvogels are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 1.64 for Blauw Geel 38. This match finished 0-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 55.0%

Odds: 1.80 EV: -1.0%

Draw 21.8%

Odds: 3.90 EV: -15.0%

Away 23.2%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -24.6%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 61.8% Odds: 1.57 -3.0%

Over 3.5 39.5% Odds: — —

BTTS 60.6% Odds: — —

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 3-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Rijnvogels

1.98

Blauw Geel 38

1.22

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -3.0% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-3.0%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

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Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.07) > Away GOOD (1.64)