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Rijnvogels vs Blauw Geel 38 Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Group B - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:30

Rijnvogels

PPG 2.07 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Blauw Geel 38

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-15.0%0-23.0%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.1%1-19.9%1-26.0%1-32.4%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.8%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.3%3-16.4%3-23.9%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-15.0%4+-23.0%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.0% 55.6% 1.80 -1.0%

Draw 21.8% 25.6% 3.90 -15.0%

Away win 23.2% 30.8% 3.25 -24.6%

Over 2.5 61.8% 63.7% 1.57 -3.0%

Over 3.5 39.5% — — —

BTTS 60.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -21.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.6%

H 55% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 1–0 8.1%

#4 2–0 8.0%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rijnvogels2.0

Blauw Geel 381.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.8% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

RIJNVOGELS · PPG 2.07

BLAUW GEEL 38 · PPG 1.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.07) > Away GOOD (1.64)

Win probability 1X2

Rijnvogels (H) 55.0%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -1.0%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -15.0%

Blauw Geel 38 (A) 23.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -24.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rijnvogels face Blauw Geel 38 in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rijnvogels a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Blauw Geel 38 23%, so Rijnvogels are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Rijnvogels and 1.2 for Blauw Geel 38 (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rijnvogels are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 1.64 for Blauw Geel 38. This match finished 0-0.

Rijnvogels vs Blauw Geel 38 Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Match Preview & Prediction

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