Today / Brazil - Serie B / Londrina vs Sao Bernardo

Londrina vs Sao Bernardo Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 8 ·Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 22:30

Londrina

PPG 0.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLD

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Sao Bernardo

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDDL

// Model verdict

Away 40% chance

Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 30.3% — a clear edge.

+103.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-115.7%0-213.3%0-37.5%0-4+4.7%1 1-06.3%1-110.7%1-29.1%1-35.1%1-4+3.2%2 2-02.2%2-13.7%2-23.1%2-31.8%2-4+1.1%3 3-00.5%3-10.8%3-20.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.6% 43.9% 2.28 -42.8%

Draw 25.8% 32.8% 3.05 -12.8%

Away win 61.7% 30.3% 3.30 +103.6%

Over 2.5 47.1% 44.4% 2.25 +6.0%

Over 3.5 21.7% 23.8% 4.20 -5.3%

BTTS 48.1% 54.1% 1.85 -11.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 175 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob48.1%

A 62% / xG 0.7-1.7 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.7%

#2 0–2 13.3%

#3 1–1 10.7%

#4 0–0 9.3%

#5 1–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Londrina0.7

Sao Bernardo1.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.1% · O3.5 PROB 21.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LONDRINA · PPG 0.67

SAO BERNARDO · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

40%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs Home POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Londrina (H) 12.6%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -42.8%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -12.8%

Sao Bernardo (A) 61.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +103.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Londrina face Sao Bernardo in Brazil - Serie B on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Londrina a 13% chance, the draw 26% and Sao Bernardo 62%, so Sao Bernardo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Londrina and 1.7 for Sao Bernardo (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Londrina are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 2.33 for Sao Bernardo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +103.6%. This match finished 1-3.

Londrina vs Sao Bernardo Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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