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Kilmarnock vs Dundee FC Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Relegation Group - 37 ·Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 18:45

Kilmarnock

PPG 1.22 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Dundee FC

PPG 0.61 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-18.0%0-24.7%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.4%1-112.1%1-27.1%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.9%2-19.2%2-25.3%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.0%3-14.6%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.4%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 52.6% 1.90 -14.3%

Draw 27.3% 27.4% 3.65 -0.2%

Away win 27.6% 27.0% 3.70 +1.3%

Over 2.5 52.3% 55.6% 1.80 -5.9%

Over 3.5 28.1% 33.3% 3.00 -9.4%

BTTS 53.5% 58.8% 1.70 -9.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.7%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.5%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 0–0 6.9%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kilmarnock1.5

Dundee FC1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KILMARNOCK · PPG 1.22

DUNDEE FC · PPG 0.61

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.22) > Away POOR (0.61)

Win probability 1X2

Kilmarnock (H) 45.1%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -14.3%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -0.2%

Dundee FC (A) 27.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kilmarnock face Dundee FC in Scotland - Premiership on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kilmarnock a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Dundee FC 28%, so Kilmarnock are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Kilmarnock and 1.2 for Dundee FC (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kilmarnock are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 0.61 for Dundee FC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Kilmarnock vs Dundee FC Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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