Today / Scotland - Premiership / Dundee Utd vs Livingston

Dundee Utd vs Livingston Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Relegation Group - 37 ·Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 18:45

Dundee Utd

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Livingston

PPG 0.47 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-15.3%0-23.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.2%1-110.3%1-25.7%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-19.9%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.7%3-16.4%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-14.8%4+-22.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 57.8% 1.73 -11.1%

Draw 25.0% 26.0% 3.85 -2.3%

Away win 23.6% 23.1% 4.33 +1.3%

Over 2.5 59.4% 60.6% 1.65 -2.0%

Over 3.5 36.1% 38.2% 2.62 -5.4%

BTTS 58.1% 61.7% 1.62 -5.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.7%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.1%

H 51% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dundee Utd1.9

Livingston1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DUNDEE UTD · PPG 1.50

LIVINGSTON · PPG 0.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=51.4%

Win probability 1X2

Dundee Utd (H) 51.4%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -11.1%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -2.3%

Livingston (A) 23.6%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dundee Utd face Livingston in Scotland - Premiership on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dundee Utd a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Livingston 24%, so Dundee Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Dundee Utd and 1.1 for Livingston (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dundee Utd are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.47 for Livingston. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Dundee Utd vs Livingston Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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