Today / Scotland - Premiership / Aberdeen vs St. Mirren

Aberdeen vs St. Mirren Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Relegation Group · Matchday 37 ·Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 18:45

Aberdeen

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

St. Mirren

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDDW

// Model verdict

Home 48% chance

Model probability 50.3% vs bookmaker-implied 47.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-18.4%0-23.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.5%1-112.3%1-25.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.0%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.2%3-14.4%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.3% 47.2% 2.12 +6.6%

Draw 26.7% 29.0% 3.45 -4.7%

Away win 23.0% 30.8% 3.25 -15.2%

Over 2.5 46.7% 54.1% 1.85 -13.6%

Over 3.5 20.4% 30.8% 3.25 -20.2%

BTTS 49.7% 57.8% 1.73 -14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.7%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 14.5%

#3 0–0 9.9%

#4 2–0 10.6%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aberdeen1.5

St. Mirren0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ABERDEEN · PPG 1.44

ST. MIRREN · PPG 0.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.44) vs P(Home)=50.3%

Win probability 1X2

Aberdeen (H) 50.3%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV +6.6%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -4.7%

St. Mirren (A) 23.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aberdeen face St. Mirren in Scotland - Premiership on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aberdeen a 50% chance, the draw 27% and St. Mirren 23%, so Aberdeen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Aberdeen and 0.8 for St. Mirren (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aberdeen are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.56 for St. Mirren. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.6%. This match finished 0-2.

Aberdeen vs St. Mirren Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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