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Al Nassr vs Al Hilal Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 32 ·Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 18:00

Al Nassr

PPG 2.80 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Al Hilal

PPG 2.47 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 66% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-15.4%0-24.1%0-32.1%0-4+1.1%1 1-06.6%1-19.9%1-27.4%1-33.7%1-4+2.0%2 2-06.0%2-19.0%2-26.7%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.6%3-15.4%3-24.1%3-32.0%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.7%4+-22.8%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 43.5% 2.30 +1.0%

Draw 26.2% 29.9% 3.35 -7.3%

Away win 29.9% 33.9% 2.95 -7.1%

Over 2.5 60.1% 69.0% 1.45 -12.9%

Over 3.5 42.4% 47.6% 2.10 -11.0%

BTTS 59.5% 73.5% 1.36 -19.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.5%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Nassr1.8

Al Hilal1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AL NASSR · PPG 2.80

AL HILAL · PPG 2.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

66%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.80) > Away EXCELLENT (2.47)

Win probability 1X2

Al Nassr (H) 43.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +1.0%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -7.3%

Al Hilal (A) 29.9%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Nassr face Al Hilal in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Nassr a 44% chance, the draw 26% and Al Hilal 30%, so Al Nassr are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Al Nassr and 1.5 for Al Hilal (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Nassr are averaging 2.80 points per game versus 2.47 for Al Hilal. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Al Nassr vs Al Hilal Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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