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Al Kholood vs Al Akhdoud Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 32 ·Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 16:20

Al Kholood

PPG 0.73 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Al Akhdoud

PPG 0.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 61% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-15.4%0-22.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.8%1-110.3%1-25.5%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.0%3-16.4%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-14.7%4+-22.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.5% 64.5% 1.55 -20.2%

Draw 25.1% 23.8% 4.20 +3.3%

Away win 23.4% 18.2% 5.50 +17.2%

Over 2.5 59.4% 61.7% 1.62 -3.8%

Over 3.5 34.8% 39.2% 2.55 -11.3%

BTTS 54.6% 59.9% 1.67 -8.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 52% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 0–0✓ 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Kholood1.9

Al Akhdoud1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 34.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AL KHOLOOD · PPG 0.73

AL AKHDOUD · PPG 0.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

61%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.73) > Away POOR (0.27)

Win probability 1X2

Al Kholood (H) 51.5%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -20.2%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +3.3%

Al Akhdoud (A) 23.4%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Kholood face Al Akhdoud in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Kholood a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Al Akhdoud 23%, so Al Kholood are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Al Kholood and 1.1 for Al Akhdoud (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Kholood are averaging 0.73 points per game versus 0.27 for Al Akhdoud. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Al Kholood vs Al Akhdoud Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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