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Nueva Chicago vs Almagro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 13 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 22:30

Nueva Chicago

PPG 1.40 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Almagro

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.8%0-18.0%0-21.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-024.1%1-19.7%1-22.0%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.6%2-15.9%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.9%3-12.4%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-10.9%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.6% 54.1% 1.85 -4.5%

Draw 29.5% 33.9% 2.95 -7.8%

Away win 18.9% 22.2% 4.50 -9.0%

Over 2.5 34.7% 35.1% 2.85 -1.1%

Over 3.5 8.1% 15.4% 6.50 -28.4%

BTTS 41.8% 42.0% 2.38 -0.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob41.8%

H 52% / xG 1.2-0.4 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 24.1%

#2 0–0 19.8%

#3 2–0 14.6%

#4 1–1 9.7%

#5 0–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nueva Chicago1.2

Almagro0.4

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.7% · O3.5 PROB 8.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NUEVA CHICAGO · PPG 1.40

ALMAGRO · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs P(Home)=51.6%

Win probability 1X2

Nueva Chicago (H) 51.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -4.5%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -7.8%

Almagro (A) 18.9%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nueva Chicago face Almagro in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nueva Chicago a 52% chance, the draw 30% and Almagro 19%, so Nueva Chicago are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Nueva Chicago and 0.4 for Almagro (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nueva Chicago are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.33 for Almagro. This match finished 1-2.

Nueva Chicago vs Almagro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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