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Ferro Carril vs D. de Belgrano Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 13 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 22:00

Ferro Carril

PPG 0.25 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

D. de Belgrano

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.6%0-118.1%0-27.6%0-32.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.0%1-112.6%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-05.2%2-14.4%2-21.8%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.2%3-11.0%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.1% 51.3% 1.95 -28.3%

Draw 40.3% 37.0% 2.70 +8.8%

Away win 32.6% 21.7% 4.60 +50.0%

Over 2.5 33.8% 32.3% 3.10 +4.8%

Over 3.5 7.0% 14.3% 7.00 -30.6%

BTTS 45.9% 40.8% 2.45 +12.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob45.9%

D 40% / xG 0.7-0.8 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.6%

#2 0–1 18.1%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 1–0 15.0%

#5 0–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferro Carril0.7

D. de Belgrano0.8

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.8% · O3.5 PROB 7.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FERRO CARRIL · PPG 0.25

D. DE BELGRANO · PPG 1.67

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.67) vs Home POOR (0.25)

Win probability 1X2

Ferro Carril (H) 27.1%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -28.3%

Draw 40.3%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +8.8%

D. de Belgrano (A) 32.6%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +50.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferro Carril face D. de Belgrano in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferro Carril a 27% chance, the draw 40% and D. de Belgrano 33%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Ferro Carril and 0.8 for D. de Belgrano (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferro Carril are averaging 0.25 points per game versus 1.67 for D. de Belgrano. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +50.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Ferro Carril vs D. de Belgrano Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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