Today / Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina / Belgrano Cordoba vs Rosario Central

Belgrano Cordoba vs Rosario Central Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura - 1 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 22:30

Belgrano Cordoba

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rosario Central

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 40.7% — a clear edge.

+29.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-18.7%0-23.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.1%1-112.4%1-25.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.8%2-18.8%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.1%3-14.2%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 40.7% 2.46 +29.1%

Draw 26.2% 35.5% 2.82 -15.7%

Away win 21.3% 30.8% 3.25 -18.5%

Over 2.5 49.4% 33.3% 3.00 +48.2%

Over 3.5 28.8% 16.0% 6.25 +48.0%

BTTS 48.4% 43.5% 2.30 +11.3%

Home O1.5 45.8% 32.3% 3.10 +42.0%

Away O1.5 20.7% 25.6% 3.90 -11.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -39.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.4%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 49% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 15.1%

#3 0–0 10.6%

#4 2–0 10.8%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Belgrano Cordoba1.4

Rosario Central0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BELGRANO CORDOBA · PPG 1.89

ROSARIO CENTRAL · PPG 1.56

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.89) > Away GOOD (1.56)

Win probability 1X2

Belgrano Cordoba (H) 52.5%

ODDS 2.46 · IMPLIED 40.7% EV +29.1%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV -15.7%

Rosario Central (A) 21.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -18.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Belgrano Cordoba face Rosario Central in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Belgrano Cordoba a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Rosario Central 21%, so Belgrano Cordoba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Belgrano Cordoba and 0.8 for Rosario Central (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Belgrano Cordoba are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.56 for Rosario Central. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +48.2%.

Belgrano Cordoba vs Rosario Central Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina Predictions