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Belgrano Cordoba vs Rosario Central Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 1 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 22:30

Belgrano Cordoba

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Rosario Central

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDL

// Model verdict

Home 43% chance

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 38.2% — a clear edge.

+37.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-18.8%0-23.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.3%1-112.4%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.8%2-18.7%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.1%3-14.1%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 38.2% 2.62 +37.5%

Draw 26.2% 35.2% 2.84 -15.4%

Away win 21.4% 33.3% 3.00 -21.5%

Over 2.5 47.8% 33.3% 3.00 +43.4%

Over 3.5 28.7% 16.0% 6.25 +47.6%

BTTS 48.5% 43.5% 2.30 +11.6%

Home O1.5 46.3% 30.3% 3.30 +52.8%

Away O1.5 20.1% 27.0% 3.70 -15.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 137 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 15.3%

#3 0–0 10.9%

#4 2–0 10.8%

#5 2–1✓ 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Belgrano Cordoba1.4

Rosario Central0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BELGRANO CORDOBA · PPG 1.89

ROSARIO CENTRAL · PPG 1.56

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

43%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Belgrano Cordoba (H) 52.5%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +37.5%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 2.84 · IMPLIED 35.2% EV -15.4%

Rosario Central (A) 21.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -21.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Belgrano Cordoba face Rosario Central in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Belgrano Cordoba a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Rosario Central 21%, so Belgrano Cordoba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Belgrano Cordoba and 0.8 for Rosario Central (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Belgrano Cordoba are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.56 for Rosario Central. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +71.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Belgrano Cordoba vs Rosario Central Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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