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Sarmiento Junin vs Argentinos JRS Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 1 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 22:30

Sarmiento Junin

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

2 – 3

FULL TIME

Argentinos JRS

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.7%0-114.1%0-26.7%0-32.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.1%1-113.5%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.8%2-16.5%2-23.1%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.2%3-12.1%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.9% 22.0% 4.55 +86.1%

Draw 30.8% 34.2% 2.92 -10.1%

Away win 28.3% 51.0% 1.96 -26.7%

Over 2.5 43.6% 34.7% 2.88 +25.6%

Over 3.5 23.0% 17.4% 5.75 +19.4%

BTTS 48.5% 42.6% 2.35 +14.0%

Home O1.5 35.0% 20.0% 5.00 +75.0%

Away O1.5 28.9% 39.2% 2.55 -15.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 137 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.5%

H 41% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.7%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 14.1%

#4 0–1 14.1%

#5 2–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sarmiento Junin1.0

Argentinos JRS1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SARMIENTO JUNIN · PPG 2.00

ARGENTINOS JRS · PPG 1.14

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

49%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.00, combined xG 1.92 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sarmiento Junin (H) 40.9%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV +86.1%

Draw 30.8%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -10.1%

Argentinos JRS (A) 28.3%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV -26.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarmiento Junin face Argentinos JRS in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarmiento Junin a 41% chance, the draw 31% and Argentinos JRS 28%, so Sarmiento Junin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Sarmiento Junin and 1.0 for Argentinos JRS (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarmiento Junin are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.14 for Argentinos JRS. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +75.0%. This match finished 2-3.

Sarmiento Junin vs Argentinos JRS Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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