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Sarmiento Junin vs Argentinos JRS Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura - 1 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 22:30

Sarmiento Junin

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Argentinos JRS

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.3%0-114.3%0-26.7%0-32.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.4%1-113.5%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.8%2-16.3%2-23.0%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.1%3-12.0%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.6% 22.0% 4.55 +84.7%

Draw 31.2% 34.2% 2.92 -8.9%

Away win 28.1% 51.0% 1.96 -27.0%

Over 2.5 41.5% 34.7% 2.88 +19.5%

Over 3.5 22.8% 17.4% 5.75 +18.7%

BTTS 48.4% 42.6% 2.35 +13.7%

Home O1.5 33.9% 20.0% 5.00 +69.5%

Away O1.5 26.9% 39.2% 2.55 -18.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -39.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.4%

H 41% / xG 0.9-0.9 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.3%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 14.4%

#4 0–1 14.3%

#5 2–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sarmiento Junin0.9

Argentinos JRS0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.5% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SARMIENTO JUNIN · PPG 2.00

ARGENTINOS JRS · PPG 1.14

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=40.6%

Win probability 1X2

Sarmiento Junin (H) 40.6%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV +84.7%

Draw 31.2%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -8.9%

Argentinos JRS (A) 28.1%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV -27.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarmiento Junin face Argentinos JRS in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarmiento Junin a 41% chance, the draw 31% and Argentinos JRS 28%, so Sarmiento Junin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Sarmiento Junin and 0.9 for Argentinos JRS (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarmiento Junin are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.14 for Argentinos JRS. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +84.7%.

Sarmiento Junin vs Argentinos JRS Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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