Napoli vs Bologna Prediction & Tips

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Italy - Serie A Regular Season - 36 Stadio Diego Armando Maradona· Naples Monday, May 11, 2026 18:45

Napoli PPG 2.35

2-3 MISS

Bologna PPG 1.65

Away· +23.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 50.1%

Odds: 1.52 EV: -23.8%

Draw 26.8%

Odds: 4.00 EV: +4.3%

Away 23.1%

Odds: 6.00 EV: +23.2%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 47.4% Odds: 1.90 -9.9%

Over 3.5 22.4% Odds: 3.30 -15.7%

BTTS 52.1% Odds: 2.00 +4.2%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Napoli

1.48

Bologna

0.94

Model SuggestionBTTS +4.2% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is +4.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+23.2%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.35) > Away GOOD (1.65)