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Napoli vs Bologna Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 36 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 18:45

Napoli

PPG 2.35 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Bologna

PPG 1.65 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-18.4%0-23.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.2%1-112.4%1-25.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.8%2-19.1%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.8%3-14.5%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% 65.8% 1.52 -23.8%

Draw 26.8% 25.0% 4.00 +4.3%

Away win 23.1% 16.7% 6.00 +23.2%

Over 2.5 47.4% 52.6% 1.90 -9.9%

Over 3.5 22.4% 30.3% 3.30 -15.7%

BTTS 52.1% 50.0% 2.00 +4.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.1%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 13.2%

#3 0–0 8.9%

#4 2–0 9.8%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Napoli1.5

Bologna0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 22.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NAPOLI · PPG 2.35

BOLOGNA · PPG 1.65

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.35) > Away GOOD (1.65)

Win probability 1X2

Napoli (H) 50.1%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV -23.8%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +4.3%

Bologna (A) 23.1%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +23.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Napoli face Bologna in Italy - Serie A on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Napoli a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Bologna 23%, so Napoli are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Napoli and 0.9 for Bologna (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Napoli are averaging 2.35 points per game versus 1.65 for Bologna. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.2%. This match finished 2-3.

Napoli vs Bologna Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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