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Huesca vs Real Sociedad B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Regular Season - 39 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 18:30

Huesca

PPG 1.47 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Real Sociedad B

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-19.9%0-25.9%0-32.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.6%1-112.8%1-27.7%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.9%2-18.3%2-25.0%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.0%3-13.6%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.5% 56.8% 1.76 -34.0%

Draw 27.9% 27.8% 3.60 +0.3%

Away win 34.6% 22.5% 4.45 +54.0%

Over 2.5 47.4% 50.0% 2.00 -5.2%

Over 3.5 24.2% 27.8% 3.60 -7.7%

BTTS 52.5% 54.1% 1.85 -2.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.5%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.2%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 0–1 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Huesca1.3

Real Sociedad B1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 24.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HUESCA · PPG 1.47

REAL SOCIEDAD B · PPG 0.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.47) > Away POOR (0.79)

Win probability 1X2

Huesca (H) 37.5%

ODDS 1.76 · IMPLIED 56.8% EV -34.0%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +0.3%

Real Sociedad B (A) 34.6%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +54.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Huesca face Real Sociedad B in Spain - Segunda División on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Huesca a 38% chance, the draw 28% and Real Sociedad B 35%, so Huesca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Huesca and 1.2 for Real Sociedad B (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Huesca are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 0.79 for Real Sociedad B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +54.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Huesca vs Real Sociedad B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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