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KSV Baunatal vs Darmstadt B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Südwest - 29 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:00

KSV Baunatal

PPG 1.69 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Darmstadt B

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 83.4% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a clear edge.

+39.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-11.9%0-21.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-02.8%1-15.2%1-24.8%1-32.9%1-4+2.0%2 2-03.9%2-17.1%2-26.5%2-34.0%2-4+2.8%3 3-03.5%3-16.5%3-25.9%3-33.6%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-18.6%4+-27.9%4+-34.8%4+-4+3.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.1% 47.6% 2.10 +19.9%

Draw 17.8% 27.4% 3.65 -35.0%

Away win 25.1% 35.1% 2.85 -28.5%

Over 2.5 83.4% 59.9% 1.67 +39.3%

Over 3.5 66.9% 37.0% 2.70 +80.6%

BTTS 78.5% 63.7% 1.57 +23.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob78.5%

H 57% / xG 2.7-1.8 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 78%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.1%

#2 2–2 6.5%

#3 3–1 6.5%

#4 3–2 5.9%

#5 1–1 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KSV Baunatal2.7

Darmstadt B1.8

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 83.4% · O3.5 PROB 66.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KSV BAUNATAL · PPG 1.69

DARMSTADT B · PPG 1.08

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.69) > Away AVERAGE (1.08)

Win probability 1X2

KSV Baunatal (H) 57.1%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +19.9%

Draw 17.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -35.0%

Darmstadt B (A) 25.1%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -28.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

KSV Baunatal face Darmstadt B in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KSV Baunatal a 57% chance, the draw 18% and Darmstadt B 25%, so KSV Baunatal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for KSV Baunatal and 1.8 for Darmstadt B (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 79% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KSV Baunatal are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.08 for Darmstadt B. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +80.6%. This match finished 1-0.

KSV Baunatal vs Darmstadt B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

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