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Al Taawon vs Al Ahli Jeddah Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 32 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 18:00

Al Taawon

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Al Ahli Jeddah

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-19.9%0-28.2%0-34.5%0-4+2.7%1 1-06.9%1-111.5%1-29.5%1-35.3%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.0%2-16.7%2-25.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.8%3 3-01.6%3-12.6%3-22.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.3% 23.8% 4.20 +13.8%

Draw 26.0% 26.7% 3.75 -1.5%

Away win 44.6% 56.5% 1.77 -21.1%

Over 2.5 52.3% 57.8% 1.73 -9.5%

Over 3.5 31.3% 35.7% 2.80 -12.4%

BTTS 54.6% 60.6% 1.65 -9.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob54.6%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2✓ 9.5%

#3 0–2 8.2%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Taawon1.2

Al Ahli Jeddah1.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AL TAAWON · PPG 1.67

AL AHLI JEDDAH · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

59%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.67) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Al Taawon (H) 29.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +13.8%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -1.5%

Al Ahli Jeddah (A) 44.6%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -21.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Taawon face Al Ahli Jeddah in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Taawon a 29% chance, the draw 26% and Al Ahli Jeddah 45%, so Al Ahli Jeddah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Al Taawon and 1.7 for Al Ahli Jeddah (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Taawon are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.00 for Al Ahli Jeddah. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Al Taawon vs Al Ahli Jeddah Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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