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Peru - Primera División
Apertura - 14
Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega· Cusco
Monday, May 11, 2026
18:00
D. Garcilaso
PPG 1.83
2-1
MISS
Alianza A.
PPG 0.83
Away· +57.1%
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
37.1%
Odds: 1.71
EV: -36.6%
Draw
32.1%
Odds: 3.45
EV: +10.8%
Away
30.8%
Odds: 5.10
EV: +57.1%
Result: Home ✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
43.9%
Odds: 2.25
-1.2%
Over 3.5
14.8%
Odds: 4.20
-22.7%
BTTS
48.1%
Odds: 2.05
-1.4%
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘
BTTS NO → YES ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st
1-1
✘
2nd
0-0
✘
3rd
1-0
✘
4th
0-1
✘
5th
2-0
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
D. Garcilaso
1.04
Alianza A.
0.98
Model Suggestion
No Bet
NO VALUE BET
Model lean:
No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.83) vs P(Home)=37.1%