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D. Garcilaso vs Alianza A. Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura - 14 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 18:00

D. Garcilaso

PPG 1.83 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Alianza A.

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-112.9%0-26.4%0-32.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.7%1-113.5%1-26.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.2%2-17.1%2-23.5%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.5%3-12.5%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.1% 58.5% 1.71 -36.6%

Draw 32.1% 29.0% 3.45 +10.8%

Away win 30.8% 19.6% 5.10 +57.1%

Over 2.5 43.9% 44.4% 2.25 -1.2%

Over 3.5 14.8% 23.8% 4.20 -22.7%

BTTS 48.1% 48.8% 2.05 -1.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.1%

D 32% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 13.2%

#3 1–0 13.7%

#4 0–1 12.9%

#5 2–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Garcilaso1.0

Alianza A.1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.9% · O3.5 PROB 14.8%

Form & verdict PPG

D. GARCILASO · PPG 1.83

ALIANZA A. · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.83) vs P(Home)=37.1%

Win probability 1X2

D. Garcilaso (H) 37.1%

ODDS 1.71 · IMPLIED 58.5% EV -36.6%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +10.8%

Alianza A. (A) 30.8%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +57.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Garcilaso face Alianza A. in Peru - Primera División on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Garcilaso a 37% chance, the draw 32% and Alianza A. 31%, so D. Garcilaso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for D. Garcilaso and 1.0 for Alianza A. (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Garcilaso are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.83 for Alianza A.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +57.1%. This match finished 2-1.

D. Garcilaso vs Alianza A. Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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