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Rustavi vs Dinamo Tbilisi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Regular Season - 12 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 17:00

Rustavi

PPG 2.40 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

Dinamo Tbilisi

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.0%0-111.8%0-24.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.3%1-112.7%1-24.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.8%2-16.9%2-22.4%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.5%3-12.5%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.8% 41.7% 2.40 +2.7%

Draw 33.1% 31.3% 3.20 +5.9%

Away win 24.1% 38.5% 2.60 -22.4%

Over 2.5 34.7% 46.5% 2.15 -25.4%

Over 3.5 10.5% 27.0% 3.70 -36.7%

BTTS 45.9% 54.9% 1.82 -16.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.9%

H 43% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.0%

#2 1–0 18.3%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 0–1 11.8%

#5 2–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rustavi1.1

Dinamo Tbilisi0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.7% · O3.5 PROB 10.5%

Form & verdict PPG

RUSTAVI · PPG 2.40

DINAMO TBILISI · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.40) > Away GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Rustavi (H) 42.8%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +2.7%

Draw 33.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +5.9%

Dinamo Tbilisi (A) 24.1%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -22.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rustavi face Dinamo Tbilisi in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rustavi a 43% chance, the draw 33% and Dinamo Tbilisi 24%, so Rustavi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Rustavi and 0.7 for Dinamo Tbilisi (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rustavi are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.80 for Dinamo Tbilisi. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.9%. This match finished 2-3.

Rustavi vs Dinamo Tbilisi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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