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Neom SC vs Al Shabab Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Regular Season - 32 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 16:50

Neom SC

PPG 1.20 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Al Shabab

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-17.8%0-24.9%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.6%1-111.9%1-27.4%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.1%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.7%3-14.6%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 44.4% 2.25 +1.3%

Draw 26.9% 27.8% 3.60 -1.9%

Away win 28.1% 34.7% 2.88 -11.4%

Over 2.5 52.3% 58.8% 1.70 -11.1%

Over 3.5 30.1% 35.7% 2.80 -15.7%

BTTS 54.6% 63.7% 1.57 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -6.2%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1✓ 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.3%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Neom SC1.5

Al Shabab1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NEOM SC · PPG 1.20

AL SHABAB · PPG 0.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.20) > Away POOR (0.87)

Win probability 1X2

Neom SC (H) 45.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +1.3%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -1.9%

Al Shabab (A) 28.1%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -11.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Neom SC face Al Shabab in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Neom SC a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Al Shabab 28%, so Neom SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Neom SC and 1.2 for Al Shabab (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Neom SC are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.87 for Al Shabab. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Neom SC vs Al Shabab Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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