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RB Leipzig W vs Leverkusen W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Regular Season - 25 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 16:00

RB Leipzig W

PPG 1.25 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Leverkusen W

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-15.9%0-25.9%0-33.9%0-4+3.1%1 1-04.5%1-19.0%1-29.0%1-35.9%1-4+4.7%2 2-03.5%2-16.9%2-26.9%2-34.5%2-4+3.6%3 3-01.8%3-13.5%3-23.5%3-32.3%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.9%4+-21.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.1% 20.0% 5.00 +70.5%

Draw 24.3% 25.0% 4.00 -1.7%

Away win 41.6% 64.5% 1.55 -35.5%

Over 2.5 63.3% 61.7% 1.62 +2.5%

Over 3.5 46.7% 40.0% 2.50 +16.8%

BTTS 62.3% 60.6% 1.65 +2.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob62.3%

A 42% / xG 1.5-2.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 1–3✓ 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

RB Leipzig W1.5

Leverkusen W2.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 46.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RB LEIPZIG W · PPG 1.25

LEVERKUSEN W · PPG 1.58

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.25) vs Away GOOD (1.58)

Win probability 1X2

RB Leipzig W (H) 34.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +70.5%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -1.7%

Leverkusen W (A) 41.6%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -35.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

RB Leipzig W face Leverkusen W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RB Leipzig W a 34% chance, the draw 24% and Leverkusen W 42%, so Leverkusen W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for RB Leipzig W and 2.0 for Leverkusen W (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RB Leipzig W are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.58 for Leverkusen W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +70.5%. This match finished 1-3.

RB Leipzig W vs Leverkusen W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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