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Spaeri vs Gagra Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Regular Season - 12 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 15:00

Spaeri

PPG 0.83 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Gagra

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-19.9%0-25.0%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.9%1-113.0%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.5%2-18.5%2-24.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.7%3-13.7%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.0% 47.6% 2.10 -7.6%

Draw 29.9% 31.3% 3.20 -2.6%

Away win 26.1% 33.3% 3.00 -13.0%

Over 2.5 46.8% 48.8% 2.05 -4.1%

Over 3.5 20.5% 28.6% 3.50 -17.0%

BTTS 52.1% 56.5% 1.77 -7.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.1%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.8%

#3 1–0 12.9%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spaeri1.3

Gagra1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 20.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SPAERI · PPG 0.83

GAGRA · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...

48%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.60) strong but model favors Home (P=44.0%)

Win probability 1X2

Spaeri (H) 44.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -7.6%

Draw 29.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -2.6%

Gagra (A) 26.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spaeri face Gagra in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spaeri a 44% chance, the draw 30% and Gagra 26%, so Spaeri are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Spaeri and 1.0 for Gagra (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spaeri are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 1.60 for Gagra. This match finished 3-0.

Spaeri vs Gagra Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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