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Vasco da Gama vs Athletico PR Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 23:30

Vasco da Gama

PPG 1.86 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Athletico PR

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-18.9%0-25.5%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.0%1-112.4%1-27.7%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.9%2-18.6%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.2%3-14.0%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.0% 52.1% 1.92 -25.1%

Draw 27.1% 29.9% 3.35 -5.5%

Away win 33.9% 25.3% 3.95 +33.9%

Over 2.5 52.8% 47.6% 2.10 +10.9%

Over 3.5 27.1% 26.0% 3.85 +2.6%

BTTS 54.6% 54.1% 1.85 +1.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.2%

#3 2–1 8.6%

#4 1–0✓ 10.0%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vasco da Gama1.4

Athletico PR1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VASCO DA GAMA · PPG 1.86

ATHLETICO PR · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.86) vs P(Home)=39.0%

Win probability 1X2

Vasco da Gama (H) 39.0%

ODDS 1.92 · IMPLIED 52.1% EV -25.1%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -5.5%

Athletico PR (A) 33.9%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +33.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vasco da Gama face Athletico PR in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vasco da Gama a 39% chance, the draw 27% and Athletico PR 34%, so Vasco da Gama are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Vasco da Gama and 1.2 for Athletico PR (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vasco da Gama are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.67 for Athletico PR. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +33.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Vasco da Gama vs Athletico PR Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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