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Seattle Reign W vs Washington S. W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Group Stage ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 23:00

Seattle Reign W

PPG 1.75 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Washington S. W

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.4%0-116.0%0-210.3%0-34.4%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.9%1-112.8%1-28.2%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-04.0%2-15.1%2-23.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.1%3-11.4%3-20.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.8% 25.3% 3.95 +1.1%

Draw 30.1% 29.4% 3.40 +2.3%

Away win 44.1% 55.6% 1.80 -20.6%

Over 2.5 45.8% 51.3% 1.95 -10.7%

Over 3.5 15.9% 29.0% 3.45 -27.1%

BTTS 48.2% 55.6% 1.80 -13.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -7.8%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob48.2%

A 44% / xG 0.8-1.3 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 12.4%

#3 0–1✓ 16.0%

#4 0–2 10.3%

#5 1–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Seattle Reign W0.8

Washington S. W1.3

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 15.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SEATTLE REIGN W · PPG 1.75

WASHINGTON S. W · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.75), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Seattle Reign W (H) 25.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +1.1%

Draw 30.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +2.3%

Washington S. W (A) 44.1%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -20.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Seattle Reign W face Washington S. W in USA - NWSL Women on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Seattle Reign W a 26% chance, the draw 30% and Washington S. W 44%, so Washington S. W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Seattle Reign W and 1.3 for Washington S. W (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Seattle Reign W are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 2.00 for Washington S. W. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Seattle Reign W vs Washington S. W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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