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USA - Major League Soccer logo USA flag USA - Major League Soccer Regular Season - 13 Allianz Field· Saint Paul Sunday, May 10, 2026 23:00
Minnesota Utd logo Minnesota Utd PPG 1.75
2-2 MISS
Austin logo Austin PPG 0.40
Away· +10.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 49.3%
Odds: 1.67 EV: -17.7%
Draw 25.6%
Odds: 3.95 EV: +0.7%
Away 25.1%
Odds: 4.65 EV: +10.0%
Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.3% Odds: 1.65 -2.2%
Over 3.5 32.9% Odds: 2.65 -12.8%
BTTS 55.6% Odds: 1.62 -9.9%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 2-1
3rd 2-0
4th 1-0
5th 0-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Minnesota Utd
1.73
Austin
1.16

Model Suggestion

Over 2.5 -2.2% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -2.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+10.0%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=49.3%

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