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Minnesota Utd vs Austin Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 23:00

Minnesota Utd

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Austin

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-16.5%0-23.8%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.6%1-111.2%1-26.5%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.6%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.8%3-15.6%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.5%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 59.9% 1.67 -17.7%

Draw 25.6% 25.3% 3.95 +0.7%

Away win 25.1% 21.5% 4.65 +10.0%

Over 2.5 59.3% 60.6% 1.65 -2.2%

Over 3.5 32.9% 37.7% 2.65 -12.8%

BTTS 55.6% 61.7% 1.62 -9.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.6%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Minnesota Utd1.7

Austin1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MINNESOTA UTD · PPG 1.75

AUSTIN · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=49.3%

Win probability 1X2

Minnesota Utd (H) 49.3%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -17.7%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +0.7%

Austin (A) 25.1%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +10.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Minnesota Utd face Austin in USA - Major League Soccer on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Minnesota Utd a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Austin 25%, so Minnesota Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Minnesota Utd and 1.2 for Austin (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Minnesota Utd are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.40 for Austin. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Minnesota Utd vs Austin Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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