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S. Luqueno vs Libertad Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 20 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 23:00

S. Luqueno

PPG 1.11 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Libertad

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-111.1%0-26.7%0-32.7%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.9%1-113.1%1-27.9%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.4%2-17.7%2-24.6%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.5%3-13.0%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 29.4% 3.40 +23.8%

Draw 27.9% 33.3% 3.00 -9.8%

Away win 35.7% 46.5% 2.15 -23.3%

Over 2.5 46.5% 46.5% 2.15 -0.0%

Over 3.5 21.7% 25.0% 4.00 -7.9%

BTTS 52.3% 54.1% 1.85 -3.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.3%

A 36% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.3%

#3 0–1 11.1%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Luqueno1.2

Libertad1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 21.7%

Form & verdict PPG

S. LUQUENO · PPG 1.11

LIBERTAD · PPG 0.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.11) > Away POOR (0.78)

Win probability 1X2

S. Luqueno (H) 36.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +23.8%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -9.8%

Libertad (A) 35.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -23.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Luqueno face Libertad in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Luqueno a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Libertad 36%, so S. Luqueno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for S. Luqueno and 1.2 for Libertad (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Luqueno are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.78 for Libertad. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +23.8%. This match finished 2-3.

S. Luqueno vs Libertad Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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