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Albion vs Nacional Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Apertura - 14 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 23:00

Albion

PPG 1.43 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Nacional

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.43), Away GOOD (1.71)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-16.9%0-24.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.1%1-111.4%1-27.1%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.3%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.1%3-15.1%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.1%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% — — —

Draw 27.7% — — —

Away win 27.4% — — —

Over 2.5 55.4% — — —

Over 3.5 33.0% — — —

BTTS 59.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.4%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Albion1.6

Nacional1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.4% · O3.5 PROB 33.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ALBION · PPG 1.43

NACIONAL · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.43), Away GOOD (1.71)

Win probability 1X2

Albion (H) 44.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Nacional (A) 27.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Albion face Nacional in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Albion a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Nacional 27%, so Albion are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Albion and 1.3 for Nacional (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Albion are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.71 for Nacional. This match finished 3-2.

Albion vs Nacional Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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