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Cusco vs Los Chankas Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 14 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 22:30

Cusco

PPG 2.17 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Los Chankas

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-19.3%0-26.7%0-33.2%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.4%1-112.1%1-28.7%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.5%2-17.9%2-25.7%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.4%3-13.4%3-22.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% 57.8% 1.73 -36.5%

Draw 26.7% 26.7% 3.75 +0.1%

Away win 36.6% 22.5% 4.45 +62.9%

Over 2.5 53.1% 55.6% 1.80 -4.4%

Over 3.5 29.5% 33.3% 3.00 -6.9%

BTTS 54.6% 58.8% 1.70 -7.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.6%

H 37% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.1%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 0–0 6.5%

#4 2–1 7.9%

#5 0–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cusco1.3

Los Chankas1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CUSCO · PPG 2.17

LOS CHANKAS · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.17) > Away GOOD (1.83)

Win probability 1X2

Cusco (H) 36.7%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -36.5%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +0.1%

Los Chankas (A) 36.6%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +62.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cusco face Los Chankas in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cusco a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Los Chankas 37%, so Cusco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Cusco and 1.4 for Los Chankas (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cusco are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.83 for Los Chankas. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +62.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Cusco vs Los Chankas Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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