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Novorizontino vs Botafogo SP Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 8 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 22:30

Novorizontino

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Botafogo SP

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-111.5%0-27.3%0-33.1%0-4+1.3%1 1-010.3%1-113.0%1-28.2%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.8%2-17.4%2-24.7%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.2%3-12.8%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 55.2% 1.81 -35.0%

Draw 28.0% 30.3% 3.30 -4.6%

Away win 36.1% 21.5% 4.65 +67.9%

Over 2.5 46.5% 42.6% 2.35 +9.3%

Over 3.5 22.1% 22.2% 4.50 -0.3%

BTTS 52.3% 48.8% 2.05 +7.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.3%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.3 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.1%

#3 0–1 11.5%

#4 1–0✓ 10.3%

#5 1–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Novorizontino1.1

Botafogo SP1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 22.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NOVORIZONTINO · PPG 1.33

BOTAFOGO SP · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Novorizontino (H) 35.9%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV -35.0%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.6%

Botafogo SP (A) 36.1%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +67.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Novorizontino face Botafogo SP in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Novorizontino a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Botafogo SP 36%, so Botafogo SP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Novorizontino and 1.3 for Botafogo SP (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Novorizontino are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.33 for Botafogo SP. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +67.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Novorizontino vs Botafogo SP Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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