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Gremio vs Flamengo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 15 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 22:30

Gremio

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Flamengo

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-112.1%0-28.5%0-34.0%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.0%1-112.7%1-28.9%1-34.2%1-4+2.0%2 2-04.7%2-16.6%2-24.6%2-32.2%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.6%3-12.3%3-21.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.0% 25.0% 4.00 +7.2%

Draw 28.3% 29.4% 3.40 -2.3%

Away win 43.6% 52.6% 1.90 -17.2%

Over 2.5 46.5% 50.0% 2.00 -7.0%

Over 3.5 23.2% 27.4% 3.65 -9.2%

BTTS 52.3% 54.6% 1.83 -4.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.3%

A 44% / xG 1.0-1.4 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 0–1✓ 12.1%

#4 1–2 8.9%

#5 0–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gremio1.0

Flamengo1.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GREMIO · PPG 2.33

FLAMENGO · PPG 1.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

54%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away GOOD (1.86)

Win probability 1X2

Gremio (H) 28.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +7.2%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -2.3%

Flamengo (A) 43.6%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gremio face Flamengo in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gremio a 28% chance, the draw 28% and Flamengo 44%, so Flamengo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Gremio and 1.4 for Flamengo (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gremio are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.86 for Flamengo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Gremio vs Flamengo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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