Gremio vs Flamengo Prediction & Tips

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Brazil - Serie A Regular Season - 15 Arena do Grêmio· Porto Alegre Sunday, May 10, 2026 22:30

Gremio PPG 2.33

0-1 HIT CS3

Flamengo PPG 1.86

Home· +7.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 28.0%

Odds: 4.00 EV: +7.2%

Draw 28.3%

Odds: 3.40 EV: -2.3%

Away 43.6%

Odds: 1.90 EV: -17.2%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 46.5% Odds: 2.00 -7.0%

Over 3.5 23.2% Odds: 3.65 -9.2%

BTTS 52.3% Odds: 1.83 -4.3%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✔

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 0-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Gremio

1.04

Flamengo

1.41

Model SuggestionBTTS -4.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -4.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+7.2%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away GOOD (1.86)