Today / Brazil - Serie B / Avai vs Fortaleza

Avai vs Fortaleza Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 8 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 21:30

Avai

PPG 1.25 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Fortaleza

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-19.9%0-25.3%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.1%1-113.0%1-26.9%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.0%2-18.5%2-24.5%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.5%3-13.7%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% — — —

Draw 28.5% — — —

Away win 27.3% — — —

Over 2.5 46.5% — — —

Over 3.5 21.7% — — —

BTTS 52.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0✓ 9.2%

#3 1–0 12.1%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Avai1.3

Fortaleza1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 21.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AVAI · PPG 1.25

FORTALEZA · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Avai (H) 44.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fortaleza (A) 27.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Avai face Fortaleza in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Avai a 44% chance, the draw 28% and Fortaleza 27%, so Avai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Avai and 1.1 for Fortaleza (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Avai are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.33 for Fortaleza. This match finished 0-0.

Avai vs Fortaleza Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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