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Santos vs Bragantino Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 15 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 21:30

Santos

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWDW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Bragantino

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-110.6%0-26.2%0-32.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.3%1-113.1%1-27.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.9%2-18.0%2-24.7%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.8%3-13.3%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 44.6% 2.24 -18.2%

Draw 27.8% 29.9% 3.35 -4.1%

Away win 35.7% 32.3% 3.10 +10.7%

Over 2.5 46.5% 47.6% 2.10 -2.4%

Over 3.5 21.9% 26.0% 3.85 -9.4%

BTTS 52.3% 54.1% 1.85 -3.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.3%

H 36% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.2%

#3 1–0 11.3%

#4 0–1 10.6%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santos1.2

Bragantino1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 21.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTOS · PPG 1.57

BRAGANTINO · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

54%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.57), Away AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Santos (H) 36.5%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV -18.2%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -4.1%

Bragantino (A) 35.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +10.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santos face Bragantino in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santos a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Bragantino 36%, so Santos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Santos and 1.2 for Bragantino (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santos are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.43 for Bragantino. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 2-0.

Santos vs Bragantino Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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