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Brazil - Serie A Sunday, May 10, 2026 21:30 
Mirassol PPG 1.14 
Chapecoense PPG 0.20
Brazil - Serie A Sunday, May 10, 2026 21:30 Mirassol PPG 1.141-1 HIT MostLikelyScore
Chapecoense PPG 0.20Away· +37.9% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Draw
✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 52.8% Odds: 1.80 -5.0%
Over 3.5 27.0% Odds: 3.00 -11.4%
BTTS 52.3% Odds: 1.85 -3.2%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✔
2nd 1-0 ✘
3rd 2-0 ✘
4th 2-1 ✘
5th 0-0 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Mirassol 1.69
Chapecoense 0.94
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5 -5.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -5.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+37.9%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Away (+37.9%) — probability too low to qualify.
League Track Record ↗
Based on 63 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 49%
O2.5/Under 48%
BTTS/No 54%
Score Hit 49%
ROI 8.0%
Bet Hit 56% (27 bets)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 55%
Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.14) vs P(Home)=49.3%