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Mirassol vs Chapecoense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 15 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 21:30

Mirassol

PPG 1.14 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Chapecoense

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 55% chance

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-16.8%0-23.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.2%1-111.4%1-25.3%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.7%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.8%3-15.5%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 67.1% 1.49 -26.5%

Draw 25.6% 24.4% 4.10 +3.0%

Away win 25.1% 15.4% 6.50 +37.9%

Over 2.5 52.8% 55.6% 1.80 -5.0%

Over 3.5 27.0% 33.3% 3.00 -11.4%

BTTS 52.3% 54.1% 1.85 -3.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.3%

H 49% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.4%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 2–0 10.3%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mirassol1.7

Chapecoense0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MIRASSOL · PPG 1.14

CHAPECOENSE · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.14) vs P(Home)=49.3%

Win probability 1X2

Mirassol (H) 49.3%

ODDS 1.49 · IMPLIED 67.1% EV -26.5%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +3.0%

Chapecoense (A) 25.1%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +37.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mirassol face Chapecoense in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mirassol a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Chapecoense 25%, so Mirassol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Mirassol and 0.9 for Chapecoense (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mirassol are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.20 for Chapecoense. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +37.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Mirassol vs Chapecoense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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