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Corinthians vs Sao Paulo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 21:30

Corinthians

PPG 1.14 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

Sao Paulo

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.6%0-118.2%0-28.0%0-32.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.3%1-112.7%1-25.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-05.0%2-14.4%2-21.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.2%3-11.0%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.0% 50.0% 2.00 -27.6%

Draw 36.5% 32.8% 3.05 +11.3%

Away win 36.5% 24.4% 4.10 +49.6%

Over 2.5 35.1% 41.7% 2.40 -15.8%

Over 3.5 7.6% 21.1% 4.75 -38.3%

BTTS 45.9% 48.8% 2.05 -5.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob45.9%

D 36% / xG 0.7-0.9 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 20.6%

#2 0–1 18.2%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 1–0 14.3%

#5 0–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Corinthians0.7

Sao Paulo0.9

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 7.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CORINTHIANS · PPG 1.14

SAO PAULO · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.14), Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Corinthians (H) 27.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -27.6%

Draw 36.5%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +11.3%

Sao Paulo (A) 36.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +49.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Corinthians face Sao Paulo in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Corinthians a 27% chance, the draw 37% and Sao Paulo 37%, so Sao Paulo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Corinthians and 0.9 for Sao Paulo (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Corinthians are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.14 for Sao Paulo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +49.6%. This match finished 3-2.

Corinthians vs Sao Paulo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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