Today / USA - Major League Soccer / New York City vs Columbus Crew

New York City vs Columbus Crew Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 20:30

New York City

PPG 1.14 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Columbus Crew

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-14.1%0-23.4%0-31.9%0-4+1.1%1 1-05.0%1-18.4%1-27.0%1-33.9%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.1%2-18.5%2-27.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-03.5%3-15.8%3-24.8%3-32.7%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-14.7%4+-23.9%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 41.7% 2.40 +9.9%

Draw 25.2% 28.2% 3.55 -6.3%

Away win 29.0% 37.0% 2.70 -13.0%

Over 2.5 61.7% 58.8% 1.70 +4.9%

Over 3.5 50.6% 35.7% 2.80 +41.7%

BTTS 62.9% 63.7% 1.57 -1.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob62.9%

H 46% / xG 2.0-1.7 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New York City2.0

Columbus Crew1.7

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 50.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW YORK CITY · PPG 1.14

COLUMBUS CREW · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.14) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

New York City (H) 45.8%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +9.9%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -6.3%

Columbus Crew (A) 29.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

New York City face Columbus Crew in USA - Major League Soccer on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New York City a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Columbus Crew 29%, so New York City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for New York City and 1.7 for Columbus Crew (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New York City are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.80 for Columbus Crew. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +41.7%. This match finished 3-0.

New York City vs Columbus Crew Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - Major League Soccer Predictions