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Comerciantes U. vs FBC Melgar Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 14 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 20:15

Comerciantes U.

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FBC Melgar

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-19.8%0-25.4%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.6%1-112.9%1-27.2%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.6%2-18.5%2-24.7%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.4%3-13.7%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% 36.8% 2.72 +15.6%

Draw 28.3% 29.9% 3.35 -3.1%

Away win 29.2% 40.0% 2.50 -16.2%

Over 2.5 46.5% 47.6% 2.10 -2.4%

Over 3.5 22.9% 26.3% 3.80 -7.8%

BTTS 52.3% 55.6% 1.80 -5.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

H 42% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.8%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 0–1 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Comerciantes U.1.3

FBC Melgar1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

COMERCIANTES U. · PPG 2.00

FBC MELGAR · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=42.5%

Win probability 1X2

Comerciantes U. (H) 42.5%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV +15.6%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -3.1%

FBC Melgar (A) 29.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -16.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Comerciantes U. face FBC Melgar in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Comerciantes U. a 43% chance, the draw 28% and FBC Melgar 29%, so Comerciantes U. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Comerciantes U. and 1.1 for FBC Melgar (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Comerciantes U. are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.17 for FBC Melgar. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Comerciantes U. vs FBC Melgar Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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