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Bay FC W vs Utah Royals W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Group Stage ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 20:00

Bay FC W

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Utah Royals W

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 58.3% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+19.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-113.9%0-212.1%0-37.0%0-4+4.5%1 1-06.3%1-111.0%1-29.5%1-35.5%1-4+3.5%2 2-02.5%2-14.3%2-23.7%2-32.2%2-4+1.4%3 3-00.6%3-11.1%3-21.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.6% 30.3% 3.30 -29.1%

Draw 26.2% 30.3% 3.30 -8.1%

Away win 58.3% 48.8% 2.05 +19.5%

Over 2.5 46.5% 51.8% 1.93 -10.3%

Over 3.5 24.7% 30.3% 3.30 -11.1%

BTTS 51.6% 57.8% 1.73 -10.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -7.8%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob51.6%

A 58% / xG 0.8-1.7 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 0–1 13.9%

#3 0–2 12.1%

#4 0–0✓ 8.0%

#5 1–2 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bay FC W0.8

Utah Royals W1.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 24.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BAY FC W · PPG 1.00

UTAH ROYALS W · PPG 2.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Bay FC W (H) 15.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -29.1%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -8.1%

Utah Royals W (A) 58.3%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +19.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bay FC W face Utah Royals W in USA - NWSL Women on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bay FC W a 16% chance, the draw 26% and Utah Royals W 58%, so Utah Royals W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Bay FC W and 1.7 for Utah Royals W (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bay FC W are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Utah Royals W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Bay FC W vs Utah Royals W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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