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Chornomorets vs P. Horodenka Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 24 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:30

Chornomorets

PPG 2.36 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

P. Horodenka

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 80.0% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4% — a clear edge.

+13.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-12.7%0-20.4%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.6%1-15.8%1-20.9%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-019.7%2-16.2%2-21.0%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.9%3-14.4%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-012.1%4+-13.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 80.0% 70.4% 1.42 +13.6%

Draw 15.6% 26.3% 3.80 -40.7%

Away win 4.4% 14.3% 7.00 -69.2%

Over 2.5 44.0% 46.5% 2.15 -5.4%

Over 3.5 22.9% — — —

BTTS 23.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob23.7%

H 80% / xG 2.1-0.3 / O2.5 44% / NoBTTS 24%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 19.7%

#2 1–0✓ 18.6%

#3 3–0 13.9%

#4 0–0 8.7%

#5 4–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chornomorets2.1

P. Horodenka0.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CHORNOMORETS · PPG 2.36

P. HORODENKA · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.36), Away AVERAGE (1.18) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Chornomorets (H) 80.0%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV +13.6%

Draw 15.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -40.7%

P. Horodenka (A) 4.4%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV -69.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chornomorets face P. Horodenka in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chornomorets a 80% chance, the draw 16% and P. Horodenka 4%, so Chornomorets are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Chornomorets and 0.3 for P. Horodenka (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 24% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chornomorets are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 1.18 for P. Horodenka. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Chornomorets vs P. Horodenka Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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